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How does the Aurora 30 minute forecast work?
Aurora – 30 minute forecast. The OVATION Aurora Forecast Model shows the intensity and location of the aurora predicted for the time shown at the top of the map. This probability forecast is based on current solar wind conditions measured at L1, but using a fixed 30-minute delay time between L1 and Earth.
How are scientists able to predict the Aurora?
Scientists can predict when and where there will be aurora, but with less confidence than they can predict the regular weather. The ultimate energy source for the aurora is the solar wind. When the solar wind is calm, there tends to be minimal aurora; when the solar wind is strong and perturbed, there is a chance of intense aurora.
Where does the auroral weather forecast come from?
The SWPC version of the Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory. Scientists at the NESDIS National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) added further refinements to make the model run in real time.
How do you know if you can see the Aurora?
Further considerations are the weather at your location, and light pollution from city lights, full moon and so forth. In order to know whether you have a chance of seeing an aurora, you need to know the level of geomagnetic activity at the time you are viewing.
Where does the Aurora occur in space weather?
Aurora. When space weather activity increases and more frequent and larger storms and substorms occur, the aurora extends equatorward. During large events, the aurora can be observed as far south as the US, Europe, and Asia. During very large events, the aurora can be observed even farther from the poles.
How did NOAA come up with the Aurora forecast?
In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora. Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts.
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